Episode 1039: "My Thoughts on D&D Teaser"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·15m 36s·analyzed·Jan 1, 2025

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.031

TL;DR

Kaneda skeptical of D&D pinball despite big IP, warns buyers to wait for Harry Potter and King Kong.

Summary

Kaneda analyzes Stern's newly confirmed Dungeons & Dragons: The Tyrant's Eye pinball machine following its New Year's Eve teaser reveal. He discusses pricing ($13K LE with 740 units), the dragon mechanism's design questions compared to X-Men, concerns about layout originality versus competing titles (Harry Potter, King Kong), and skepticism about whether D&D IP fanatics will convert to pinball buyers. He advises against day-one purchases due to upcoming competitive releases and predicts D&D will become 'yesterday's news' quickly, citing X-Men's rushed launch as a cautionary tale.

Key Claims

D&D LE will be $13,000 with 740 units produced, derived from 1974 founding year of D&D IP
high confidence · Kaneda, official Stern pricing/production numbers referenced as confirmed
The dragon mechanism shown in teaser may not be the main mechanic; appears similar to Attack from Mars drop bank under UFO
medium confidence · Kaneda analyzing teaser video highlights by Cary Hardy; visual comparison interpretation
Harry Potter shipping in 3 months, King Kong in 3.5 months from early January 2025
high confidence · Kaneda stating known release windows for competing titles
Jack Danger had 'rough 2024' due to X-Men being rushed to market against his wishes
medium confidence · Kaneda reference to Danger's public statements; claim about designer intentions is interpretation
99% of pinball buyers are not D&D fans and will become 'apologists' claiming the game is great while not buying it
low confidence · Kaneda opinion/prediction; rhetorical exaggeration for effect
Pedretti Gaming's 'magical 2025' image contains visual references to three J-Pop remakes: Theater of Magic, Toten, and Circus Voltaire
medium confidence · Kaneda visual analysis of cryptic Pedretti Gaming post; speculative interpretation of intentional Easter eggs
D&D will not appreciate in value or become hard to get, unlike successful LEs
low confidence · Kaneda prediction based on market saturation and upcoming competition

Notable Quotes

“Dungeons and Dragons. The Tyrant's Eye has been confirmed. We saw the teaser video. We saw a little bit of the mechanism in the game.”
Kaneda @ ~1:00 — Opening confirmation of official D&D announcement, framing the episode's central topic
“Is there enough that makes you want to pull the trigger on day one or week one of a new pinball release? And if you just wait, you're going to save thousands of dollars.”
Kaneda @ ~2:30 — Core thesis: skepticism about FOMO-driven day-one purchases in 2025 market
“Less is more. I want to see there be only 500 LEs. I think that's a nice number. I think when games were just 500, the frenzy to get one was amazing and was incredible.”
Kaneda @ ~4:00 — Design philosophy on scarcity and FOMO; criticism of current 740-unit model
“I think the mechanisms really have to be magical. And we're looking at this dragon that they showed... does not look like the dragon... It doesn't look like he eats balls.”
Kaneda @ ~9:00 — Specific mechanical design concern about the central dragon toy; skepticism about innovation
“Is that going to end up being another fan layout from Brian Eddy with nothing truly original or unique, knowing that Keith Elwin's King Kong is around the corner, knowing that Eric Minear's Harry Potter is around the corner?”
Kaneda @ ~11:30 — Questions D&D originality against competitive landscape; frames design risk
“A stern is a stern is a stern. So, you know, like just remember who making this game I find it hard to believe that stern is going to go above and beyond and throw so much into this game and not fall back on flat plastics all throughout the game.”
Kaneda @ ~14:00 — Criticism of Stern's design philosophy; expectation-setting about mechanical depth vs. flat plastic usage
“I just don't see this game going up in value or being hard to get. And I do think with what's around the corner, the smart person is going to sort of curb your FOMO a little bit.”
Kaneda — Direct investment/collector advice; counter to typical LE hype cycle

Entities

Stern PinballcompanyDungeons & Dragons: The Tyrant's Eyegame Brian Eddyperson Dwight Sullivanperson Jack Dangerperson Kanedaperson Harry Pottergame

Signals

?
announcement: Stern Pinball officially confirmed Dungeons & Dragons: The Tyrant's Eye via teaser video on New Year's Eve 2024; full reveal scheduled for Friday (early January 2025); order banks opening same day
high · Kaneda: 'Stern Pinball's next title, Dungeons and Dragons. The Tyrant's Eye has been confirmed. We saw the teaser video... The full reveal of this game, order banks are all going to open up this Friday.'
?
product_strategy: D&D LE production set at 740 units, derived from 1974 founding year of D&D IP; represents increase from previous LE scarcity model (historically 500 units); pricing holds at $13K LE
high · Kaneda: 'The LE version of the game is still going to be $13,000... Stern seemingly will just find some number associated with an IP now, and that will become the number of LEs... 740 is better than 811. It's better than a thousand.'
?
design_innovation: D&D's dragon mechanism shown in teaser raises questions about primary playfield toy; visual analysis suggests possible drop-bank under dragon (similar to Attack from Mars UFO) rather than ball-eating mechanic; uncertainty about whether dragon is main mech or secondary feature
medium · Kaneda: 'It does not look like the dragon... It doesn't look like he eats balls... It looks a lot like Attack from Mars, like the three target drop bank is underneath that dragon and it looks like it lowers much like the UFO shot up the middle in Attack from Mars.'
?
design_philosophy: Kaneda questions whether D&D represents another 'fan layout' from Brian Eddy without truly original mechanics, positioning against competing high-profile designs (King Kong, Harry Potter) expected in following months
medium · Kaneda: 'if this is going to end up being another fan layout from Brian Eddy with nothing truly original or unique, knowing that Keith Elwin's King Kong is around the corner, knowing that Eric Minear's Harry Potter is around the corner, knowing that other games are coming out real soon, is that going to be enough?'

Topics

D&D mechanism design and playfield innovationprimaryLimited edition production numbers and FOMO dynamicsprimary2025 competitive landscape: Harry Potter, King Kong vs. D&DprimaryX-Men as cautionary tale: rushed releases and designer reputation damageprimaryIP conversion risk: D&D fanatics to pinball buyersprimaryStern's design philosophy: flat plastics vs. mechanical innovationsecondaryPedretti Gaming cryptic announcements and J-Pop remake speculationsecondaryCollector secondary market pricing and depreciation patternssecondary

Sentiment

negative(-0.65)— Kaneda is enthusiastic about pinball's 2025 prospects generally, but deeply skeptical of D&D specifically. He expresses doubt about mechanical innovation, IP appeal conversion, market positioning versus competitors, and advises against purchase. Dismisses as 'yesterday's news' before release. However, tone is analytical and constructive rather than hostile; he remains engaged with the community and expresses hope for other titles. The negativity is calibrated skepticism, not cynicism.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.047

I'm the reluctant dragon, what ho, quite so, the very reluctant dragon, oh very very don't you know, they call me the timid dragon, what rot, I'm not, I just won't fight, I'd rather play, I know I shan't get hurt that way. Welcome everybody to the first Canadian Pinball Podcast of 2025. I hope everybody had a great New Year's Eve. It was a busy day in pinball. Who thought everybody was going to wait and cram all this pinball news into one day? We got finally the worst kept secret in pinball. Stern Pinball's next title, Dungeons and Dragons. The Tyrant's Eye has been confirmed. We saw the teaser video. We saw a little bit of the mechanism in the game. Remember, everybody, they did this with X-Men. We saw the Sentinel head in X-Men. So will this be the major mech in the game? We also got some stuff from Jersey Jack. They did not want to be left out of the party. We got some stuff from Pedretti Gaming. And so as we all know, 2024 is over. It was a lackluster year in pinball, and now we are looking forward to what is going to be the pinball world in 2025. And we know there's some big themes coming. We know that 2025 needs to sort of fire on all cylinders if these pinball companies are going to get us to buy these games new in box. Because that's the big thing, right? It's like, I'm not saying don't buy games. It's just like, is there enough that makes you want to pull the trigger on day one or week one of a new pinball release? And if you just wait, you're going to save thousands of dollars. But here's the thing. Dungeons and Dragons. Let's talk about it for a minute. So this game is going to be fully revealed to the world this Friday on Stern's website. We can see that the game is not going to be more expensive than previous games of recent years. So the LE version of the game is still going to be $13,000. Now, a $13,000 Dungeons & Dragons game in which they're going to make 740 limited edition versions of the game. The reason why is D&D was a game that was founded in 1974. Stern seemingly will just find some number associated with an IP now, and that will become the number of LEs. Will that work out for them? I don't think it worked out too well for X-Men. Maybe it does better with D&D. You know my feeling on all of this. Less is more. I want to see there be only 500 LEs. I think that's a nice number. I think when games were just 500, the frenzy to get one was amazing and was incredible. And that's when LEs were like $6,500 people. Now they're 13 grand and they doubled the amount. So 740 is better than 811. It's better than a thousand. So we'll see what happens. And ultimately, I encourage each and every one of you to just be patient. I see a lot of people arguing right now about whether or not D&D will be successful, whether or not it will be a flop. You know, look, there's some things we can't argue. And that is as a property, I get that D&D is a billion dollar property for Wizards of the Coast. And it's grown a little bit over the last few years. Now, does that mean that those D&D fanatics who can go buy a D&D game for like anywhere from to are those individuals going to cross over and buy a to pinball machine And here the thing I don't know. You don't know. We're going to have to wait and see what happens come Friday when the sales banks open up for this game. And I think a lot is going to come down to, if you ask me, a lot is going to come down to, because we're not going to see the code in the game, right? Dwight has the ability to put us all to sleep when he talks about his rule sets and he uses his finger to hit all the switches they're not going to do that you know we're going to get that two to three minutes stern video that just shows off all the features I think they'll also probably do you know one of the extended videos with Gomez and Eddie talking about the game I'm sure Dwight will be in there but it won't be like a full gameplay sort of walkthrough of the game which is good you know I don't want them to spoil everything in this game. But what I think is really going to make or break this game, I think the mechanisms really have to be magical. And we're looking at this dragon that they showed. Now, if you look at the way they did X-Men, they featured the main mech in the teaser trailer. So is this dragon the main mech in the game? It does not look like the dragon. I can't tell fully. It doesn't look like he eats balls. I'm not sure if balls come through the front of his mouth. Maybe he doesn't eat them, but he spits out the balls like he's shooting fire. So that would be really cool. But what we can see in the video, Cary Hardy like highlighted or he made brighter the video. It looks a lot like Attack from Mars, like the three target drop bank is underneath that dragon and it looks like it lowers much like the UFO shot up the middle in Attack from Mars. And so look, everybody, if this is going to end up being another fan layout from Brian Eddy with nothing truly original or unique, knowing that Keith Elwin's King Kong is around the corner, knowing that Eric Meunier's Harry Potter is around the corner, knowing that other games are coming out real soon, is that going to be enough? So I think that's going to be one of the things that people look for. Are the mechs magical enough? Is it a unique layout? And also, I think with the world of D&D, the artwork is super important. And I really hope they don't use cheesy AI-generated artwork, which this franchise has been accused of doing this last year. So they got lazy and used a lot of AI-generated art. I hope the art style on this game reflects more of the Capcom arcade versions of D&D from like the 80s or 90s. I think it's the 90s those games came out. So go look at Capcom, arcade, Dungeons & Dragons artwork. And I think if they nail that and the game's got a lot of magical mechs, I think this game is going to have like not too bad of a reveal. I do. I think coming out of titles that were underwhelming, a world in which there hasn't been many magical mechs in a long time, there hasn't really been that world under glass that just blew us away in pinball anywhere in 2024. for. So I really do think this game is coming out in a time to start the new year where we're all looking for a lot more creativity in pinball. Now, where I would encourage each and every one of us to manage our expectations, it's one simple thing. A stern is a stern is a stern. So, you know, like just remember who making this game I find it hard to believe that stern is going to go above and beyond and throw so much into this game and not fall back on flat plastics all throughout the game And they actually going to engineer something that absolutely mind blowing. I hope I'm wrong. I hope they do do all that. But we're going to know Friday. So the full reveal of this game, order banks are all going to open up this Friday. That's exciting. We just have two days to wait. Now, does that mean they're going to do like a dealer or a distro call sometime before then? Probably not. They're probably going to do it Friday morning. I already see dealers taking orders on this game. I encourage each and every one of you wait to see this game. I still don't think, and I'm just saying this, I don't think it even matters like what's in it. I don't even think it matters if this game is incredible. I just don't see this game going up in value or being hard to get. And I do think with what's around the corner, the smart person is going to sort of curb your FOMO a little bit, curb your enthusiasm, if you will, and just get excited about it, right? Geek out over it. Join the conversation around it. But man, I wouldn't go in on one yet. I would just wait because I just feel like in just three months, we're going to get Harry Potter in three and a half months we're gonna get King Kong and it's all coming like so soon and when those games drop we know that D&D is gonna be yesterday's news look how much uncanny X-Men is now yesterday's news even Jack Danger posted you know that he had a rough 2024 why do you think he had a rough 2024 because all the slings and arrows that came at him because of a game that got rushed to market. He didn't want X-Men to be rushed to market. It just was. And I don't think X-Men's gonna have some 180 turnaround where the game is all of a sudden gonna be incredible in six months. I don't think that's gonna happen. I think they're moving on to the next. Here's what's funny, people. The name of this game, I wanna just explain to you that D&D is really nerdy and really geeky. It is. It's like a whole different level of being a nerd and a geek. So the name of this game is The Tyrant's Eye. And I'm like, oh, wow, cool. Like, I don't even know what that means. Let me Google search what D&D Tyrant's Eye means. Let me read you this. It is a item. It is a wondrous amulet that requires attunement, in parentheses, legendary. Okay, I love the way D&D language works. All right, let me read you what the tyrant's eye is. An amulet on a silver necklace with a large pale green gemstone in the middle with smaller pale green gemstones to the left and right of the larger one to mirror a death tyrant's central and lesser eyes. The death tyrant's eye is a powerful item made from the eyes of a death tyrant and necromancy. This item allows a necromancer to bypass necromancer law through the undead controlling capacity of a death tyrant and those in range to be unable to heal. While wearing this amulet, gain the following effects. Creatures you choose in 120 feet of you can't regain HP. There is no limit to how many undead you can control at a time. How many of you now are feeling excited, right? Oh man, the tyrant's eye. Can't wait to get my hands on that amulet. You know what I'm saying? Wait, what would you rather have? This or Die Hard? Yippee-ki-yay, mofos. This or Total Recall? Consider that a divorce This or Predator Ghost Ness mofos You know I just saying everybody Like the truth is this 99 of you are not D fans 99 of you didn play D 99% of you are going to turn into apologists and say, this is the greatest game ever. Are you buying it? No, it's the greatest game ever. Are you getting one? No, it's the greatest game ever. Okay, that's what's going to happen. All right, so not to be left out of the party yesterday was Jersey Jack Pinball once again uploading the photo of Jack standing in front of the Wizard of Oz and also Harry Potter. He's over at Warner Brothers, and he loves to do this. He loves to share that photo, and we all know that Harry Potter is next. We all know that it's going to be Eric Meunier's wide-body game, and then I think Steve Ritchie is either doing the Matrix or Sonic the Hedgehog. And so look, we know that that game is coming out in February and March. I kind of like Jersey Jack's troll post where they're like, just don't forget about this, ladies and gentlemen. And look, I do think these companies need to get a little bit more direct. Like I know what they're doing and it's subversive, but just come out and say it. Like we have Harry Potter coming out in three months, like get ready for magic. Like one company did that yesterday. Pedretti Gaming was like, here's to a magical 2025. And they have this image. I think everyone's getting this wrong. They have this image that is actually encompassing three different potential title remakes from Planetary Pinball and Pedretti Gaming. So if you look at the photo, they said, here's to a magical 2025. So instantly, everybody is like they're remaking Theater of Magic. It's right there. They wrote the word magical. But then you look to the upper right of the image and there is a flying carpet, which is from Toten. And then you look below it and there's all these circus tents, which is Circus Voltaire. So they've put into that image purposely the three major J-pop remake games, Theater of Magic, Toten, Tales of the Arabian Nights and Circus Voltaire, I think are all represented in that image. So it could be one of those three titles. I don't think it's confirmation that it's only theater of magic, but it's new pinball week. It's a new pinball year and it's an exciting time. I really, really do get excited when we know there's a new game around the corner. I hope everybody had a great New Year's Eve. I hope everyone is spending time with friends and family right now and not working. and I look forward to the live reveal of D&D. What I'm gonna do, Canada's gonna do my live reaction to this game when they reveal it. We know exactly when that's gonna happen. There's a countdown clock. Will something leak beforehand? Probably, that always happens. But I can't wait to share my reaction. I can't wait to see your reaction. I'll tell you right now, I'm not buying one. I don't even care what's in it. I just bought Brenda a bracelet from Tiffany's that costs more than the Ellie of this machine. So it is not happening, ladies and gentlemen. I need a few months to recover. And then maybe, then maybe I'll go on a mission to get the amulet known as the Tyrant's Eye. Everybody have a great New Year's Day. We'll be on like maybe every single day as more things develop around the next game from Stern Pinball. Peace out. I just won't fight. I know I shall. Here we go gathering nuts in May. Nuts in May. Nuts in May. I'm so reluctant. Woo! Yop! Yop! Yop! Yop! Yop!